Quantity vs. Quality in Sports Gambling - A Simple Example
We’ve all heard a handicapper or sports gambler boast of their ability to win at a 60% or better clip. Is it possible to win at that percentage over a short period of time? Absolutely. If someone is able to maintain that winning percentage over the course of years – enjoy your riches, and I wish you all the luck in the world. Now the truth. It’s not going to happen - forget it, 60% is nearly impossible over any substantial length of time. 55%, maybe, but anyone who claims a 60% win rate over multiple sports and seasons is simply lying – or they are betting a very small number of games.
Don’t give up yet however. Below I will show that winning 54 out of every 100 games (54%) can turn a nice profit. The example below will examine the attainable profits from different amounts a games wagered and different winning percentages of those games. For the sake of argument someone could claim that they have hit 60% winners betting on sports the past three years, for example. But if they only bet 10 games a year – 30 total over the three year span – and they win 18 of those, I guess they have the right to claim they can handicap sports at a 60% win rate.
Technically correct, but a very weak claim. Wager size $110 Betting $110 to win $100 60% winning percentage over 30 games 18 winners = $1800 12 losers = $1320 Profit = $480 For someone who claims to pick 60% winners over the past three years, and is betting roughly $100 a game – a $480 profit does not look all that impressive. So much for that impressive 60% winning percentage. Let us now look at a different example. A guy claims that he has hit a conservative 54% of his games over the past 3 years (52.38% is the break even point). However, over the course of that time he bets roughly 3 games per day on all major sports. His total games bet would be 3285 over that time span. Let’s examine his numbers using the same bet size as the so called 60% bettor. Wager size $110 Betting $110 to win $100 54% winning percentage over 3285 games 1774 winners = $177400 1511 losers = $166210 Profit = $11,190 You can see from these simple examples that it is important to not only look at winning percentages, but also the number of games wagered and the bet size to realistically analyze potential profits.
Be sure to take this into account when analyzing your bets, or when you hear outrageous claims of 60% or better winning percentage over a long period of time. Good luck with your wagers, and I wish you the best of luck this year!.
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